Tuesday 30 December 2014

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Dorset

Originally posted here >>> http://iaindale.com/

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8
1. Bournemouth East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21320 (48.4%)
Labour: 5836 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 13592 (30.9%)
UKIP: 3027 (6.9%)
Independent: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 7728 (17.6%)
Sitting MP: Tobias Ellwood (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
2. Bournemouth West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18808 (45.1%)
Labour: 6171 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13225 (31.7%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5583 (13.4%)
Sitting MP: Conor Burns (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDem vote may be stronger here than elsewhere but I expect Conor Burns to increase his majority.
3. Christchurch
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27888 (56.4%)
Labour: 4849 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 12478 (25.3%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
MAJORITY: 15410 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Christopher Chope (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat. Lots of LibDem votes to be attacked by both Conservative and Labour here. Hence an increased majority.
4. Mid Dorset & North Poole
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20831 (44.5%)
Labour: 2748 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 269 (0.6%)
Sitting MP: Annette Brooke (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Any chance the LibDems had of retaining this seat came with the news that Annette Brooke is retiring. It would take a minor miracle for them to retain it.
5. North Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27640 (51.1%)
Labour: 2910 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 20015 (37%)
Green: 546 (1%)
UKIP: 2812 (5.2%)
Others: 218 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7625 (14.1%)
Sitting MP: Robert Walter (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative
Robert Walter will be under attack from UKIP as he is one of the most Europhile of Conservative MPs, but his majority is likely to increase as the LibDem vote crumbles to other parties.
6. Poole
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22532 (47.5%)
Labour: 6041 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 14991 (31.6%)
BNP: 1188 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2507 (5.3%)
Independent: 177 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7541 (15.9%)
Sitting MP: Robert Syms (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.Possible increased majority for Robert Syms.
7. South Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22667 (45.1%)
Labour: 15224 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 9557 (19%)
Green: 595 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2034 (4%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7443 (14.8%)
Sitting MP: Richard Drax (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
This is an unpredictable seat. It had been a Tory seat in the 1980s and 90s but went Labour in 2001. Drax won it back in 2010 with a healthy majority. Labour has some hope of winning here and may well do so if UKIP eat into the Tory vote and not their own, and the LibDem vote goes to Labour. But there are a lot of ‘ifs’ there. Drax was a form opponent of gay marriage, saying it would undermine the sanctity of marriage. Drax is a great fan of marriages. He has had three of them.
8. West Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27287 (47.6%)
Labour: 3815 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 23364 (40.7%)
Green: 675 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2196 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 3923 (6.8%)
Sitting MP: Oliver Letwin (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDems have had this seat on their hit list for the last four elections but they have never been able to break through. Letwin got his biggest majority since 1992 in 2010 and the only conceivable result in 2015 is an increased Tory majority.

IAN DALES General Election Predictions: Wiltshire

Originally posted here >>> http://iaindale.com/

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 1
1. Chippenham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21500 (41%)
Labour: 3620 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 23970 (45.8%)
BNP: 641 (1.2%)
Green: 446 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.4%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Christian: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2470 (4.7%)
Sitting MP: Duncan Hames (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Although is majority isn’t big, Duncan Hames has dug himself in since winning the seat in 2010 and will be difficult to shift. But the Tory candidate Michelle Donelan is a good campaigner. Yet again, her success depends on warding off UKIP and encouraging LibDems to vote Labour.
2. Devizes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25519 (55.1%)
Labour: 4711 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 12514 (27%)
Green: 813 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.5%)
Independent: 566 (1.2%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 13005 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Claire Perry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. North Swindon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22408 (44.6%)
Labour: 15348 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 8668 (17.2%)
BNP: 1542 (3.1%)
Green: 487 (1%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 7060 (14%)
Sitting MP: Justin Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The Swindon seats are traditionally bellweather seats. Boundary changes before the last election certainly aided a Tory win and may continue to protect Justin Tomlinson here. It’s worth pointing out he got the biggest swing in the South-West in 2005 (cutting the Lab majority from 8,500 to 2,500) and then again in 2010 (winning with a 7,060 majority). In the recent local elections the Tories made gains off Labour in North Swindon (but slipped back in South). Six of the 10 wards were also record results and the Tories have won two Council by-elections with stonking majorities in what were marginal seats. Local election results are not necessarily good guides as to what a general election may portent, but I predict Tomlinson will hold his seat but only very narrowly. If Ed Miliband is heading for Number 10 he will need to prove me wrong in seats like this.
4. North Wiltshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25114 (51.6%)
Labour: 3239 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 17631 (36.2%)
Green: 599 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1908 (3.9%)
Independent: 208 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7483 (15.4%)
Sitting MP: James Gray (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat and a lot of LibDem votes to go elsewhere.
5. Salisbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23859 (49.2%)
Labour: 3690 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 17893 (36.9%)
BNP: 765 (1.6%)
Green: 506 (1%)
UKIP: 1392 (2.9%)
Independent: 257 (0.5%)
Others: 119 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5966 (12.3%
Sitting MP: John Glen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The LibDems have always held hopes of taking Salisbury, even back in the 1980s and 1990s. But it’s never quite happened. It won’t happen in May either but i expect them to retain more of their vote here than in other seats where they are a good second.
6. South Swindon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19687 (41.8%)
Labour: 16143 (34.3%)
Lib Dem: 8305 (17.6%)
Green: 619 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2029 (4.3%)
Christian: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (7.5%)
Sitting MP: Robert Buckland (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Very difficult one to predict and anythings could happen here, but on balance I feel Labour may well just snatch it.
7. South West Wiltshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25321 (51.7%)
Labour: 5613 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 14954 (30.5%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.5%)
Independent: 446 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 10367 (21.1%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Murrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.

Monday 29 December 2014

#GE2015 UK POLLING REPORT FORECAST

261 338 22 11 18


The standard method of translating shares of the vote into seats is to use a uniform swing calculation. This means that the national change in vote share for each party is applied to each individual seat to see how that would effect the result, and then these theoretical results in each seat are totted up to produce a projection for House of Commons.
This is a crude measure and can result in some illogical and impossible projections – for example, if a poll showed Labour support dropping by 13%, as one poll did during Summer 2008, then a uniform swing calculation using those figures would project Labour getting less than zero votes in 48 seats. This is clearly nonsense. Such projections also ignore any regional variations, tactical considerations or variations due to incumbency effects of new MPs or MPs standing down. Despite all these drawbacks, it normally does a reasonably good job and, given that it is a straight extrapolation of current voting figures it is at least accepted as a fair projection that is not at the whim of individual guesswork or assumptions.

Originally posted here >>> http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Hampshire

Originally posted here http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats:19
Current Political Makeup: Con 15, Lab 2, LibDem 2

Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 17 LAB 2
1. Aldershot
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21203 (46.7%)
Labour: 5489 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 15617 (34.4%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.5%)
Others: 803 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 5586 (12.3%)
Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Howarth
Prediction: Conservative hold
Had the LibDems not been in coalition they might have made some headway here. Expect Sir Gerald’s majority to double.
2. Basingstoke
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25590 (50.5%)
Labour: 10327 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 12414 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13176 (26%)
Sitting MP: Maria Miller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Labour came within a whisker of winning Basingstoke in 2001, and Maria Miller’s expenses experience won’t have hurt her. But boundary changes have helped make this a safe Tory seat now, even though Miller’s expenses scandal may mean a reduced majority.
3. East Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29137 (56.8%)
Labour: 4043 (7.9%)
Lib Dem: 15640 (30.5%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.9%)
English Dem: 710 (1.4%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13497 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Damian Hinds (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
4. Eastleigh
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)
2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Mike Thornton (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
The Conservatives thought they would win this seat back at each of the last two general elections, but each time Chris Huhne pulled through. At the by-election they came third, with UKIP almost pipping the rather monochrome Mike Thornton. It’s highly unlikely UKIP’s vote will hold up so the outcome of this seat may depend on where UKIP’s voters put their cross. If enough of them return to the Conservative fold, it could be enough to see the Conservative home. Having said that, the LibDems remain strong in local government and have a good infrastructure there. This could prove to be the difference, but on balance I think their national woes may count against Thornton holding the seat. I realise I may be in the minority in making this particular prediction.
5. Fareham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30037 (55.3%)
Labour: 7719 (14.2%)
Lib Dem: 12945 (23.8%)
Green: 791 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2235 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 17092 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Mark Hoban (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Gosport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24300 (51.8%)
Labour: 7944 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 9887 (21.1%)
BNP: 1004 (2.1%)
Green: 573 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1496 (3.2%)
English Dem: 622 (1.3%)
Independent: 493 (1.1%)
Others: 620 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 14413 (30.7%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Dinenage (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Havant
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22433 (51.1%)
Labour: 7777 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 10273 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2611 (5.9%)
English Dem: 809 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 12160 (27.7%)
Sitting MP: David Willetts (Con)
Prediction: Con hold
David Willetts is standing down, but his successor, Alan Mak, will have little trouble in holding this seat.
8. Meon Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28818 (56.2%)
Labour: 3266 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 16693 (32.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.9%)
English Dem: 582 (1.1%)
Independent: 134 (0.3%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12125 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: George Hollingbery (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
9. New Forest East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26443 (52.8%)
Labour: 4915 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 15136 (30.3%)
Green: 1024 (2%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
MAJORITY: 11307 (22.6%)
Sitting MP: Julian Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat.
10. New Forest West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27980 (58.8%)
Labour: 4666 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11084 (23.3%)
Green: 1059 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2783 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 16896 (35.5%)
Sitting MP: Desmond Swayne (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat.
11. North East Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32075 (60.6%)
Labour: 5173 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13478 (25.5%)
UKIP: 2213 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 18597 (35.1%)
Sitting MP: Sir James Arbuthnot (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Sir James Arbuthnot is standing down and his successor Ranil Jaywardena should maintain if not increase the Tory majority here.
12. North West Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31072 (58.3%)
Labour: 6980 (13.1%)
Lib Dem: 12489 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2751 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 18583 (34.9%)
Sitting MP: Sir George Young (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat. Sir George Young is standing down and replaced by Kit Malthouse.
13. Portsmouth North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19533 (44.3%)
Labour: 12244 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 8874 (20.1%)
Green: 461 (1%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.1%)
English Dem: 1040 (2.4%)
TUSC: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7289 (16.5%)
Sitting MP: Penny Mordaunt (Con)
Prediction: Probably Conservative hold
A Labour seat during the Blair/Brown years, Labour has high hopes of retaking this, but overturning this size of majority will take some doing. Even if the LibDems lost half the vote they have built up since 1997 it would still leave Mordaunt with a majority, assuming she can hold on to her vote. She will be hoping the LibDem vote goes at least in part to the Greens. I expect a Tory majority of 1-3,000 here.
14. Portsmouth South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13721 (33.3%)
Labour: 5640 (13.7%)
Lib Dem: 18921 (45.9%)
BNP: 873 (2.1%)
Green: 716 (1.7%)
UKIP: 876 (2.1%)
English Dem: 400 (1%)
Others: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5200 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Mike Hancock (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This seat is now a genuine three way marginal. The LibDems are confident of retaining it despite the Hancock scandal. His successor is the former LibDem leader of the local council. That is a double edged sword as council leaders generally have a lot of enemies.This seat has never had a huge LibDem majority since it was won by Mike Hancock in 1997. It’s always ranged between three and six thousand. It’s difficult to assess the impact of the groping scandal, but on top of their national woes, it could be that the Tories win back what was once for them a safe seat. Hancock has failed to squeeze the Labour vote as much as some of his colleagues, and not so long ago they managed a healthy 25%. If they return to those levels the Tories will win, unless Labour do incredibly well nationally. In that case a Labour gain isn’t out of the question.
15. Romsey & Southampton North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24345 (49.7%)
Labour: 3116 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (41.3%)
UKIP: 1289 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4156 (8.5%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Nokes (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
This was a LibDem seat from 2001 to 2010 but it’s unlikely to revert to the LibDems in May. Expect Caroline Nokes to increase her majority.
16. Southampton Itchen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16134 (36.3%)
Labour: 16326 (36.8%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.8%)
Green: 600 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.3%)
TUSC: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: John Denham (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
John Denham held onto this seat by his fingertips. The Labour vote has been on the decline here since 1997 and it may be that there is some kind of demographic change going on. If the Tories are to win a majority they need to win seats like this. Labour have en enthusiastic candidate in Rowenna Davis, but she has no connections to the area and the Tory candidate Royston Smith, a former leader of Southampton Council will no doubt be forever pointing this out.
17. Southampton Test
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14588 (33%)
Labour: 17001 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 9865 (22.3%)
Green: 881 (2%)
UKIP: 1726 (3.9%)
Independent: 126 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2413 (5.5%)
Sitting MP: Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat was held by the Tories up until 1997, but has been relatively solidly Labour ever since. However, as in Itchen, its vote has been on the decline and Labour will be a little worried about losing it if the Tories do better than expected in May. The Tory candidate is a local councillor and a good campaigner. One to watch on election night.
18. Winchester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27155 (48.5%)
Labour: 3051 (5.5%)
Lib Dem: 24107 (43.1%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
English Dem: 503 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3048 (5.4%)
Sitting MP: Steve Brine (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
This was partly Mark Oaten’s seat. The LibDems were disappointed not to hold onto this seat in 2010 but it would be no surprise to anyone if Steve Brine’s majority doubled or trebled in May, assuming a large part of the LibDem vote shifts to Labour.
19. Isle of Wight
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32810 (46.7%)
Labour: 8169 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 22283 (31.7%)
BNP: 1457 (2.1%)
Green: 931 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2435 (3.5%)
English Dem: 1233 (1.8%)
Independent: 175 (0.2%)
Others: 771 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10527 (15%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Turner (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Has been a LibDem seat in the past, but they have little chance or no chance of winning it back in 2015.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Buckinghamshire

Originally posted here http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Speaker 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 1, Speaker 1
1. Aylesbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27736 (52.2%)
Labour: 6695 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 15118 (28.4%)
UKIP: 3613 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 12618 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: David Lidington (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Easy win for David Lidington.
2. Beaconsfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32053 (61.1%)
Labour: 6135 (11.7%)
Lib Dem: 10271 (19.6%)
Green: 768 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2597 (4.9%)
Independent: 191 (0.4%)
Others: 475 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 21782 (41.5%)
Sitting MP: Dominic Grieve (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
With 61% of the vote it’s safe to say Dominic Grieve can be confident of victory!
3. Buckingham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
BNP: 980 (2%)
UKIP: 8401 (17.4%)
Speaker: 22860 (47.3%)
Christian: 369 (0.8%)
Independent: 10331 (21.4%)
Others: 5394 (11.2%)
MAJORITY: 12529 (25.9%)
Sitting MP: John Bercow (Speaker)
Prediction: Bercow to win
No comment needed.
4. Chesham & Amersham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31658 (60.4%)
Labour: 2942 (5.6%)
Lib Dem: 14948 (28.5%)
Green: 767 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2129 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 16710 (31.9%)
Sitting MP: Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Another 60% vote share. This might reduce, although the fracturing of the LibDem vote should see Cheryl Gillan increase her majority.
5. Milton Keynes North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23419 (43.5%)
Labour: 14458 (26.8%)
Lib Dem: 11894 (22.1%)
BNP: 1154 (2.1%)
Green: 733 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1772 (3.3%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 363 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8961 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: Mark Lancaster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour seat in 1997 and 2005, the boundaries were redrawn for 2010 and although a Labour gain is possible, it is far from probable. The LibDem vote would need to halve and all those votes would need to go to Labour? Unlikely? I’d have thought so.
6. Milton Keynes South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23034 (41.6%)
Labour: 17833 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9787 (17.7%)
BNP: 1502 (2.7%)
Green: 774 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2074 (3.7%)
Others: 329 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5201 (9.4%)
Sitting MP: Iain Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Very difficult to call, but it was a Labour seat for 13 years under Blair and Brown and there is a substantial LibDem vote for Labour to win over. I think they may well just do it.
7. Wycombe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23423 (48.6%)
Labour: 8326 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 13863 (28.8%)
UKIP: 2123 (4.4%)
Independent: 228 (0.5%)
Others: 188 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9560 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Steve Baker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The Tory majority here has increased at each of the last three general elections but some demographic changes might suggest this trend may go into reverse in 2015. I’m not suggesting that the seat is at risk of being lose by the Tories, but they would do well to court the increasing Asian vote here.

Sunday 28 December 2014

#GE2015 Election Forecast (Dec 28th)

Now cast shown below, long range forecast at the bottom. From ElectionForecast.co.uk

The votes and seats totals shown elsewhere on this site are forecasts. They are predictions about what will happen on 7 May 2015. These forecasts are based on where we think the polls are today, combined with historical evidence about how support for parties evolves as elections approach. As such, they will have significant uncertainty until just before the election, and they are also difficult to evaluate.
This tab provides information on where we think the polls are today. We think this is useful for understanding what the current polls imply about the breakdown of seats, as well as for seeing what the current situation is likely to be in constituencies that have not been individually polled. As further constituency polls are released, we can then compare those polls to these seat "nowcasts" in order to assess whether our model is doing a good job of interpolating support for the parties in unpolled constituencies.

Here are the seats and votes that each party would receive, if the election were today, given what current and past polling tells us:

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing Lo Votes Hi Swing
Conservatives 242 250 258 -56 28.8% 29.2% 29.6% -6.9%
Labour 296 305 315 47 32.1% 32.5% 33.0% 3.5%
Liberal Democrats 17 20 23 -37 9.0% 9.3% 9.6% -13.7%
SNP 36 42 49 36 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 2.1%
Plaid Cymru 1 3 5 0 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Greens 1 1 2 0 5.6% 5.9% 6.3% 5.1%
UKIP 7 10 14 10 16.9% 17.2% 17.6% 14.1%
Other 1 1 1 0 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% -4.3%
To see our estimate of what the national and constituency polls imply about each seat currently:
Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of current probability of victory for every party in every seat.
At the level of regions, we estimate the following current levels of support for each party:
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
East Midlands 31 35 6 0 0 5 21 2
East of England 37 22 10 0 0 7 23 1
London 28 43 9 0 0 6 11 1
North East 20 49 7 0 0 6 18 1
North West 24 45 8 0 0 4 18 1
Scotland 11 32 6 44 0 4 2 1
South East 41 19 11 0 0 7 19 2
South West 35 19 16 0 0 9 19 1
Wales 18 39 7 0 13 3 18 2
West Midlands 30 35 7 0 0 5 21 2
Yorkshire and The Humber 22 41 7 0 0 6 21 2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

THIS IS THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR MAY 7TH 2015


most recently on 28 December 2014 at 09:07. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 245 288 334 30
Conservatives 231 277 318 -29
SNP 23 35 46 29
Liberal Democrats 16 25 36 -32
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions West Sussex

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8
1. Arundel & South Downs
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)
Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Nick Herbert already has a huge majority. It’s likely to get bigger.
2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat. Another increased Tory majority is likely here.
3. Chichester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Yet another increased Tory majority is likely here.
4. Crawley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)
Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Genuinely difficult to call. Labour throughout the Blair years, Crawley moved decisively towards the Tories in 2010, although the swing here wasn’t as large as the North Kent seats.
5. East Worthing & Shoreham
Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)
Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Tim Loughton is safe as houses here.
6. Horsham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Francis Maude (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Usual story. Collapsing LibDem vote to Labour leads to bigger Tory majority.
7. Mid Sussex
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Ditto above.
8. Worthing West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)
Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: East Sussex

Originally posted here http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, LibDem 2, Green 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 4, LibDem 1
1. Bexhill & Battle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28147 (51.6%)
Labour: 6524 (12%)
Lib Dem: 15267 (28%)
BNP: 1950 (3.6%)
Others: 2699 (4.9%)
MAJORITY: 12880 (23.6%)
Sitting MP: Greg Barker (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe as houses, and with the LibDem vote crumbling to Labour, the Tory majority should increase here.
2. Brighton Kemptown
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16217 (38%)
Labour: 14889 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 7691 (18%)
Green: 2330 (5.5%)
UKIP: 1384 (3.2%)
TUSC: 194 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1328 (3.1%)
Sitting MP: Simon Kirby (Con)
Prediction: Probable Labour gain
Simon Kirby defied predictions and took this seat in 2010. He’s unlikely to hold it despite performing well as a constituency MP. The Green council’s record may well mean some of the Green vote goes to Labour and at least a good proportion of the LibDem vote is likely head in the same direction. If Labour don’t win this seat, it will be symptomatic that they are in for a terrible evening. A good majority, on the other hand will be an indication that Ed Miliband is heading for Downing Street.
3. Brighton Pavilion
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12275 (23.7%)
Labour: 14986 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 7159 (13.8%)
Green: 16238 (31.3%)
UKIP: 948 (1.8%)
Others: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1252 (2.4%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Lucas (Green)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
They don’t come much more hardworking than Caroline Lucas, and if work rate counted for anything she’d waltz home in 2015. However, the disastrous record of the Green controlled council in Brighton may scupper her chances of holding the seat. This is an incredibly difficult seat to call. Opinion is split on whether Lucas will not only hold the seat but increase her majority or whether Labour could squeak it. There’s a LibDem vote to squeeze and the Greens may be able to do this more easily than Labour, and there are also several areas of the constituency where UKIP are said to making inroads into the Labour vote. I’ve called this for Labour, but it’s not a prediction I’d bet any money on.
4. Eastbourne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Lloyd (LibDem)
Prediction: Probable Conservative gain
Won in 2010 from Nigel Waterson, Stephen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP. Lloyd has been a hardworking MP but rather preposterously resigned as a government PPS as his constituency didn’t get enough ‘pork’ in the autumn statement.
5. Hastings & Rye
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20468 (41.1%)
Labour: 18475 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 7825 (15.7%)
BNP: 1310 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Dem: 339 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1993 (4%)
Sitting MP: Amber Rudd (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Amber Rudd has been a vocal MP and is now a DECC minister. This was a Labour seat under Blair and Brown and it would be a brave punter who bet any money against it returning to the Labour fold. If it doesn’t, Labour needs to prepare for a very dark election night indeed.
6. Hove
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18294 (36.7%)
Labour: 16426 (33%)
Lib Dem: 11240 (22.6%)
Green: 2568 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Independent: 85 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1868 (3.7%)
Sitting MP: Mike Weatherley (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
The Tories’ best hope of retaining this seat was if Mike Weatherley re-fought it but he’s decided to retire after only one term. The reason I expect Labour to gain it is because I think they will sweep up a good proportion of the existing LibDem vote.
7. Lewes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18401 (36.7%)
Labour: 2508 (5%)
Lib Dem: 26048 (52%)
BNP: 594 (1.2%)
Green: 729 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1728 (3.4%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7647 (15.3%)
Sitting MP: Norman Baker (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow LibDem hold
2010 was a high watermark for the LibDems in this once very safe Tory seat. The Tories are putting a lot of effort into unseating Norman Baker but it’s rather out of control. It all depends on how much of his vote seeps to Labour. Like Stephen Lloyd in Eastbourne and Norman Lamb in North Norfolk, Norman Baker has squeezed the Labour vote to virtually nothing. His continued success depends almost entirely whether he can supress it enough on 7 May to pull through.
8. Wealden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31090 (56.6%)
Labour: 5266 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 13911 (25.3%)
Green: 1383 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3319 (6%)
MAJORITY: 17179 (31.3%)
Sitting MP: Charles Hendry (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The decline in the LibDem vote should mean an increased majority for Nusrat Ghani, the new Tory candidate chosen to succeed Charles Hendry.

Saturday 27 December 2014

Iain Dales General Election Predictions 8: Kent

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 17

Current Political Makeup: Con 16 UKIP 1

Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con16 UKIP 1

1. Ashford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29878 (54.1%)
Labour: 9204 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (22.8%)
Green: 1014 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2508 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 17297 (31.3%)
Sitting MP: Damian Green (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses for Damian Green.
2. Canterbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22050 (44.8%)
Labour: 7940 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16002 (32.5%)
Green: 1137 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1907 (3.9%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6048 (12.3%)
Sitting MP: Julian Brazier (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
A high LibDem vote in 2010 may well fragment to Labour, giving Julian Brazier a higher majority.
3. Chatham & Aylesford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20230 (46.2%)
Labour: 14161 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 5832 (13.3%)
BNP: 1365 (3.1%)
Green: 396 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1314 (3%)
English Dem: 400 (0.9%)
Christian: 109 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6069 (13.9%)
Sitting MP: Tracey Crouch (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
By rights this seat ought to return to Labour if the Tories are in trouble next May. If Jonathan Shaw had stood again, Tracey Crouch may have been in difficulties, but she is blessed with a hapless Labour opponent who is not just called Tristan, but Osborne too. But she has proved to be a powerful constituency MP and has built up a strong personal following. In addition there isn’t a huge LibDem vote to crumble to Labour and UKIP haven’t got much of a presence. I’d be astonished if this was anything other than a Tory hold.
4. Dartford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24428 (48.8%)
Labour: 13800 (27.6%)
Lib Dem: 7361 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
English Dem: 2178 (4.3%)
Independent: 264 (0.5%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10628 (21.2%)
Sitting MP: Gareth Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Labour held this seat from 1997 to 2010 but Gareth Johnson achieved a huge swing in 2010, turning a narrow Labour majority of a few hundred into a Tory majority of more than 10,000. That might be eaten into somewhat in May, but I doubt very much whether Labour has any real chance of winning the seat back.
5. Dover
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22174 (44%)
Labour: 16900 (33.5%)
Lib Dem: 7962 (15.8%)
BNP: 1104 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1747 (3.5%)
English Dem: 216 (0.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
Others: 200 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5274 (10.5%)
Sitting MP: Charlie Elphicke (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Dover is quite a volatile seat. It was held by Labour between 1997 and 2010 and Charlie Elphicke did well to win it back for the Tories with such a good majority. He’s been a doughty defender of Dover and had quite a high media profile. Although Labour requires quite a high swing here, they may be aided by UKIP. They haven’t been very strong in Dover up until now, but they may benefit here from the Farage effect in South Thanet. The question is, will they take more votes off the Tories than Labour? I predict a narrow Tory hold.
6. Faversham & Mid Kent
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26250 (56.2%)
Labour: 7748 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9162 (19.6%)
Green: 890 (1.9%)
UKIP: 1722 (3.7%)
Others: 940 (2%)
MAJORITY: 17088 (36.6%)
Sitting MP: Hugh Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses.
7. Folkestone & Hythe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26109 (49.4%)
Labour: 5719 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 15987 (30.3%)
BNP: 1662 (3.1%)
Green: 637 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2439 (4.6%)
Independent: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10122 (19.2%)
Sitting MP: Damian Collins (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
At the last three elections the LibDems have tried to persuade the media that they had a serious chance of winning this seat. It was total bollocks of course. This time UKIp are trying the same trick. And it’s still bollocks. Damian Collins will get an increased majority here.
8. Gillingham & Rainham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21624 (46.2%)
Labour: 12944 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 8484 (18.1%)
BNP: 1149 (2.5%)
Green: 356 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1515 (3.2%)
English Dem: 464 (1%)
Others: 250 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8680 (18.6%)
Sitting MP: Rehman Chishti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A stupendous result for the Tories here in 2010, ousting the popular Labour MP Paul Clark with a massive swing. The only fly in the Tory ointment here is UKIP, who may well benefit from a Rochester effect, with Nigel Farage. But it would be a major shock if Chishti didn’t pull it off again.
9. Gravesham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22956 (48.5%)
Labour: 13644 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 6293 (13.3%)
Green: 675 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2265 (4.8%)
English Dem: 1005 (2.1%)
Independent: 465 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9312 (19.7%)
Sitting MP: Adam Holloway (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Another Medway seat which has traditionally been seen as a bellweather. held by Jacques Arnold in the Thatcher/Major years, it was held by Labour with 5,000 majorities in 1997 and 2001. Adam Holloway won it in 2005 with a majority of a few hundred, but absolutely thrashed Labour in 2010. Will it be different in 2015? It would be a brave person who would bet that Labour could win here in May.

10. Maidstone & The Weald
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23491 (48%)
Labour: 4769 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 17602 (36%)
Green: 655 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1637 (3.3%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
Others: 643 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5889 (12%)
Sitting MP: Helen Grant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
As in Folkestone & Hythe, the LibDems have always had high hopes in this seat. Ann Widdecombe kept them at bay even though they have consistently done well in local elections. In parliamentary elections in this seat they’ve never managed to break through. If they couldn’t do it in 2010 it’s difficult to see how they will now. Having said that, they have a hard working candidate in Jasper Gerard and Widdecombe’s successor Helen Grant is said to be unpopular with her local party as well as being a rather invisible sports minister. Despite that, it would be unbelievable if she contrived to lose this seat. The truth is that if this seat behaves like others, her majority could actually increase.
11. North Thanet
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.7%)
Labour: 9298 (21.5%)
Lib Dem: 8400 (19.4%)
UKIP: 2819 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 13528 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe as safe can be, with a split opposition. Even a north Kent UKIP surge is unlikely to affect the result in any serious way.
12. Rochester & Strood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23604 (49.2%)
Labour: 13651 (28.5%)
Lib Dem: 7800 (16.3%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
English Dem: 2182 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9953 (20.7%)
BY ELECTION NOV 2014
UKIP: 16,867 (42.1%)
Conservative: 13,947 (34.8%)
Labour 6,713: (16.8%)
Green 1,692: (4.2%)
LibDem 349: (0.9%
Others 497: (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 2,920 (7.3%)
Sitting MP: Mark Reckless (UKIP)
Prediction: Conservative gain
It was a fantastic achievement for UKIP to win this seat in the by-election. The question is, can they retain it at the general election? This depends on a number of factors, not least whether the voters UKIP took from Labour will return to their natural home. If they do, Mark Reckless is stuffed. Much may depend on turnout too. A high turnout will help Reckless. The Conservatives will put in a lot of effort into this seat and if they win it back the cheers will be heard far beyond Rochester or Strood. My guess is that there will be a lot of cheering.
13. Sevenoaks
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28076 (56.8%)
Labour: 6541 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 10561 (21.4%)
BNP: 1384 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1782 (3.6%)
English Dem: 806 (1.6%)
Independent: 258 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17515 (35.4%)
Sitting MP: Michael Fallon (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
An increased majority for Michael Fallon, methinks.
14. Sittingbourne & Sheppey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24313 (50%)
Labour: 11930 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 7943 (16.4%)
BNP: 1305 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2610 (5.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 319 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12383 (25.5%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Henderson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years, Gordon Henderson won it in 2010 with a massive swing, akin to those in neighbouring seats. I can’t see any of these Medway and North Kent seats returning to the Labour fold unless Ed Miliband wins a substantial majority throughout the country.
15. South Thanet
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22043 (48%)
Labour: 14426 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 6935 (15.1%)
UKIP: 2529 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 7617 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: Laura Sandys (Con)
Prediction: UKIP gain
Laura Sandys is standing down after only one term. People interpreted this move as being ‘frit’ by Nigel Farage’s UKIP candidacy. Not true. However, as a popular local MP, it’s certainly not helped the Conservative cause. She has been replaced by Craig Mackinlay, a former UKIP deputy leader, but better known for his failure to beat the hapless Ann Barnes in the Kent Police & Crime Commissioner election. Constituency polling, which is notoriously unreliable, puts Nigel Farage behind, but the UKIP campaigning machine will be deployed. The question is whether the candidate, Nigel Farage himself, is able to put in the time needed to win the seat. He’ll have to. Even then, victory won’t be assured. This is the seat that every single media organisation will be represented at on election night. It has the potential to change the very nature of British politics. No one can be sure what will happen here, and I openly admit that my prediction is based on nothing more than thirty years of observing these things and my own political instinct. And that’s been wring before, as those who heard me threatening to run down Whitehall naked if the LibDems got 57 seats in 2010 will testify to!
16. Tonbridge & Malling
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29723 (57.9%)
Labour: 6476 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 11545 (22.5%)
Green: 764 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.7%)
English Dem: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 505 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18178 (35.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir John Stanley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
One of the safest seats in the country. And this won’t be changed by the fact that Sir John Stanley is standing down.
17. Tunbridge Wells
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28302 (56.2%)
Labour: 5448 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 12726 (25.3%)
BNP: 704 (1.4%)
Green: 914 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2054 (4.1%)
Independent: 172 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15576 (31%)
Sitting MP: Greg Clark (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
A decline in the LibDem vote should see Greg Clark home with a majority of not far short of 20,000. This is assuming UKIP don’t filch votes from the Tories. They had made a breakthrough here on the local council, but the 2014 results were a disappointment for Nigel Farage.
Coming next: East Sussex

Friday 26 December 2014

Iain Dales General Election Predictions 7: Berkshire

This is the seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 1
1. Bracknell
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27327 (52.4%)
Labour: 8755 (16.8%)
Lib Dem: 11623 (22.3%)
BNP: 1253 (2.4%)
Green: 821 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2297 (4.4%)
Others: 60 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 15704 (30.1%)
Sitting MP: Philip Lee (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses for the Tories.
2. Maidenhead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31937 (59.5%)
Labour: 3795 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 15168 (28.2%)
BNP: 825 (1.5%)
Green: 482 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1243 (2.3%)
Others: 270 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16769 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Theresa May (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
No trouble for the Home Secretary. She could well increase her majority if the opposition votes split right.
3. Newbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 33057 (56.4%)
Labour: 2505 (4.3%)
Lib Dem: 20809 (35.5%)
Green: 490 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1475 (2.5%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12248 (20.9%)
Sitting MP: Richard Benyon (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The Labour vote could well double in this seat … to 8% from 4%. If that happens, Richard Benyon gets an increased majority.
4. Reading East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21269 (42.6%)
Labour: 12729 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 13664 (27.3%)
Green: 1069 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1086 (2.2%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 7605 (15.2%)
Sitting MP: Rob Wilson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This was a Labour seat from 1997 till 2005 when Rob Wilson won it with a wafer thin majority of 475. Labour would really have to perform spectacularly well to win here again. I doubt they will even come close.
5. Reading West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20523 (43.2%)
Labour: 14519 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 9546 (20.1%)
Green: 582 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.2%)
Others: 852 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Alok Sharma (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Sharma counfounded the pundits in 2010, overturning a Labour majority of more than 4,000. He could be undone if the LibDem vote really collapses and goes to Labour, so this is by no means a safe Tory seat now, despite a good sized majority. I expect Alok Sharma to squeak home.
6. Slough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16361 (34.3%)
Labour: 21884 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 6943 (14.5%)
Green: 542 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1517 (3.2%)
Christian: 495 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5523 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Fiona MacTaggart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat was held by the Tory John Watts until 1997 but demographic changes have cemented Labour’s hold on it.
7. Windsor
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30172 (60.8%)
Labour: 4910 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11118 (22.4%)
BNP: 950 (1.9%)
Green: 628 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1612 (3.3%)
Independent: 198 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19054 (38.4%)
Sitting MP: Adam Afriyie (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
With 61% of the vote Adam Afriyie doesn’t have anything to worry about.
8. Wokingham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28754 (52.7%)
Labour: 5516 (10.1%)
Lib Dem: 15262 (28%)
Green: 567 (1%)
UKIP: 1664 (3.1%)
Independent: 2340 (4.3%)
Others: 425 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13492 (24.7%)
Sitting MP: John Redwood (Con)
Prediction: Definite "Conservative* hold
Nothing to see here. Move along now.
Coming next: Kent

Iain Dales General Election Predictions 6: Bedfordshire

Originally posted here >>>>> http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/24/general-election-predictions-6-bedfordshire

This is the sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 3
1. Bedford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17546 (38.9%)
Labour: 16193 (35.9%)
Lib Dem: 8957 (19.9%)
BNP: 757 (1.7%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1136 (2.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1353 (3%)
Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
This seat was Labour during the Blair & Brown years and only narrowly went Tory last time. With a substantial LibDem vote to eat into, it’s difficult to see Labour failing to win this seat. If they do fail, it spells big trouble for Ed Miliband.
2. Luton North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13672 (31.8%)
Labour: 21192 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 4784 (11.1%)
BNP: 1316 (3.1%)
Green: 490 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 7520 (17.5%)
Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’ majority should increase as he takes a few thousand votes from the LibDems.
3. Luton South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12396 (29.4%)
Labour: 14725 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 9567 (22.7%)
BNP: 1299 (3.1%)
Green: 366 (0.9%)
UKIP: 975 (2.3%)
Independent: 1872 (4.4%)
Others: 1016 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2329 (5.5%)
Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Esther Rantzen stood here last time and there are around 4,000 votes from her and other independents going begging. The Tories might think they are in with a chance of taking this, but the demographics of the seat count against them. Shuker has bedded himself in and it’s not likely he’ll be shifted.
4. Mid Bedfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28815 (52.5%)
Labour: 8108 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13663 (24.9%)
Green: 773 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2826 (5.1%)
English Dem: 712 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 15152 (27.6%)
Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
A split opposition vote should mean a bigger majority for Nadine.
5. North East Bedfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30989 (55.8%)
Labour: 8957 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 12047 (21.7%)
BNP: 1265 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2294 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 18942 (34.1%)
Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Ditto Nadine.
6. South West Bedfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26815 (52.8%)
Labour: 9948 (19.6%)
Lib Dem: 10166 (20%)
BNP: 1703 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 16649 (32.8%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat. End of.
Coming next: Berkshire

Iain Dales General Election Predictions 5: Hertfordshire

Originally posted here >>>>>>>>>>> http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/23/general-election-predictions-5-hertfordshire

This is the fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 9, Labour 2
1. Broxbourne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26844 (58.8%)
Labour: 8040 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 6107 (13.4%)
BNP: 2159 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1890 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 18804 (41.2%)
Sitting MP: Charles Walker (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses.
2. Hemel Hempstead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24721 (50%)
Labour: 10295 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 11315 (22.9%)
BNP: 1615 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1254 (2.5%)
Independent: 271 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13406 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Mike Penning (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
In 2010 this seat saw the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in the country – more than 14% – pushing Conservative support above 50% and Labour into third place. Astonishing bearing in mind that between 1997 and 2005 this was a Labour seat. Mike Penning is as safe as safe can be.
3. Hertford & Stortford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29810 (53.8%)
Labour: 7620 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 14373 (26%)
BNP: 1297 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1716 (3.1%)
Independent: 325 (0.6%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15437 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Mark Prisk (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Another Hertfordshire seat that is as as safe as it could be.
4. Hertsmere
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26476 (56%)
Labour: 8871 (18.8%)
Lib Dem: 8210 (17.4%)
BNP: 1397 (3%)
Green: 604 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1712 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 17605 (37.2%)
Sitting MP: James Clappison (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
A massive majority for James Clappison’s successor. This used to be the seat held by Cecil Parkinson, and the majorities haven’t changed much since his day.
5. Hitchin & Harpenden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29869 (54.6%)
Labour: 7413 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 14598 (26.7%)
Green: 807 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1663 (3%)
Independent: 109 (0.2%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15271 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Peter Lilley (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Any reduction of the LibDem vote here is bound to give the Conservatives a bigger majority, assuming UKIP don’t take too much of the Tory vote.
6. North East Hertfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26995 (53.5%)
Labour: 8291 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 11801 (23.4%)
Green: 875 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2075 (4.1%)
Independent: 209 (0.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15194 (30.1%)
Sitting MP: Oliver Heald (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
And possibly an increased majority here too,.
7. South West Hertfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30773 (54.2%)
Labour: 6526 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 15853 (27.9%)
BNP: 1302 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.6%)
Independent: 846 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 14920 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: David Gauke (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
And so the story repeats itself.
8. St Albans
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21533 (40.8%)
Labour: 9288 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 19228 (36.4%)
Green: 758 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2028 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 2305 (4.4%)
Sitting MP: Anne Main (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDems had high hopes of winning this seat in 2010 and the more optimistic of them still think they’re in with a chance this time. The LibDem candidate, Sandy Walkington, is not to be underestimated but they are surely bound to lose vote share, especially after some bad local election results.
9. Stevenage
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18491 (41.4%)
Labour: 14913 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 7432 (16.6%)
BNP: 1007 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2004 (4.5%)
English Dem: 366 (0.8%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3578 (8%)
Sitting MP: Stephen McPartland (Con)
Prediction: Very narrow Labour gain
Another bellweather seat, held by the Conservatives from 1983 to 1997 and Labour from 1997 to 2010. Stephen McPartland will do well to hang on here if Ed Miliband comes within a sniff of Number 10. Could be one of the closest results of the night.
10. Watford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19291 (34.9%)
Labour: 14750 (26.7%)
Lib Dem: 17866 (32.4%)
BNP: 1217 (2.2%)
Green: 885 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1199 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 1425 (2.6%)
Sitting MP: Richard Harrington (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
A genuine three way marginal, this rates as one of the LibDems’ top targets. They have a strong popular local candidate in the mayor of Watford Dorothy Thornhill, but in reality the contest is likely to be between Labour and the sitting Tory MP. Rather like Stevenage, if Ed Miliband is doing well, this is the kind of seat he will expect to win.
11. Welwyn & Hatfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27894 (57%)
Labour: 10471 (21.4%)
Lib Dem: 8010 (16.4%)
Green: 796 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1643 (3.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 17423 (35.6%)
Sitting MP: Grant Shapps (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Hard to believe that this was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2005 but Grant Shapps has built up a formidable campaigning machine which has reduced the Labour vote from 47% to 21%.
Coming next: Bedfordshire

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions 4: Cambridgeshire

Originally post here >>>>>>>>> http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/22/general-election-predictions-4-cambridgeshire

This is the fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Labour 1
1. Cambridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)
Sitting MP: Julian Huppert (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
A genuine three way marginal, this seat has been held by all three parties in recent memory. It went LibDem in 2005. If you look at the size of the LibDem majority here, Julian Huppert ought to be considered very safe, but this is a seat which swings with the wind, and if the wind is blowing towards Labour you can see it returning to them. It obviously has a high student vote and this may determine the outcome. However Huppert has been a strong performer both locally in Parliament and if anyone can hold this seat for the LibDems, he can. But bearing in mind the LibDems’ calamitous results in May I’ve now changed my mind and think Labour will win here.
2. Huntingdon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
No words necessary.
3. North East Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
One of the safest of safe Conservative seats.
4. North West Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)
Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Even safer than the previous one.
5. Peterborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)
Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
This is Labour’s second biggest hope in Cambridgeshire and it is a seat which was held by Labour between 1997 and 2005 in the person of the notorious Helen Brinton. Jackson has had two terms to establish himself. Having said that the pro Tory swing in 2010 was way below the national average, and this has become quite an ethnically diverse seat. As in many other seats, this may come down to where the LibDem vote shakes down and how much UKIP eat into the two main party votes.
6. South Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Lansley (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Andrew Lansley may be standing down but the Tory majority here is likely to increase due to the massive LibDem vote shrinking, presumably to Labour.
7. South East Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)
Sitting MP: James Paice (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
James Paice is standing down but as in the previous seat, the Tory majority is likely to increase here due to the split opposition vote.
Coming next: Hertfordshire

Sunday 21 December 2014

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions 3: Suffolk

Originally posted here >>>>> http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/21/general-election-predictions-3-suffolk

This is the third in a series of blogposts which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2015: Conservative 5, Labour 2
1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)
Sitting MP: David Ruffley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
The only time this seat has ever looked like drifting away from the Tories was in 1997 when David Ruffley only narrowly held on by 368 votes. Since then he has built up a more or less impregnable majority. He’s standing down but this is one to bet your mortgage on.
2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)
Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Again, nothing less than a political earthquake would shift Dan Poulter here, partly due to a split opposition.
3. Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)
Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. The fact that UKIP haven’t been very popular here in the past begs the question as to whether they can eat into the Labour vote to allow Ben Gummer to squeak through. The fact that the LibDems have also scored strongly in the past tends to suggest that a slab of their 18% at the last election will go to Labour as well. Gummer has provied to be a popular, independent minded MP, but has only had one term to build up a personal vote. Will that be enough? I suspect not.
4. South Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)
Sitting MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
If Tim Yeo wasn’t standing down I’d have reduced this to the status of probable Conservative hold, but with the LibDem vote splitting to Labour it’s difficult to see this as anything other than a bet your mortgage Tory hold.
5. Suffolk Coastal
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
A much safer seat than the figures show, mainly because of the high LibDem vote. Put your money on an increased majority for Therese Coffey.
6. Waveney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)
Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Probable Labour gain
Peter Aldous has a wafer thin majority. Formerly Jim Prior’s seat it went Labour in 1997 and if UKIP take more votes off the Tories than Labour, it’s likely to return to Labour, given that they will be the beneficiary of any reduction in the LibDem vote. Aldous will still feel there is all to play for and a Conservative hold can’t be ruled out, but the odds are stacked against them.
7. West Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on.
Coming next: Cambridgeshire

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions 2: Norfolk

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/15/general-election-predictions-2-norfolk

This is the second in a series of blogposts which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
NORFOLK
Seats: 9
Current State of the Parties: Con 7, LibDem 2
Predicted State of the Parties: Con 6, LibDem 1, Labour 2
Broadland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 17046 (32.4%)
BNP: 871 (1.7%)
Green: 752 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 7292 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: Keith Simpson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold
It would take an earthquake to shift Keith Simpson. The LibDems used to have pretensions here but the so-called ‘North Norfolk effect’ has so far not trickled south of Aylsham.
Great Yarmouth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18571 (43.1%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Lib Dem: 6188 (14.4%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
Green: 416 (1%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4276 (9.9%)
Sitting MP: Brandon Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A genuine three way marginal, this seat ought to swing back to Labour if Ed Miliband is to win a majority. However, much of Labour’s vote has defected to UKIP and this seat is one of their top targets. In local government UKIP has won a swathe of seats on both the borough and county councils. As elsewhere, UKIP has had candidate troubles here and that may count against them. Brandon Lewis, who won the seat with a bigger than expected majority in 2010 and has been quite a high profile junior minister will do well to hang on here, but he may well just do it.
Mid Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25123 (49.5%)
Labour: 8857 (17.4%)
Lib Dem: 11267 (22.2%)
BNP: 1261 (2.5%)
Green: 1457 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2800 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 13856 (27.3%)
Sitting MP: George Freeman (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
North Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15928 (32.1%)
Labour: 2896 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 27554 (55.5%)
Green: 508 (1%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11626 (23.4%)
Sitting MP: Norman Lamb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This was the scene of my electoral defenstration in 2005. Despite adverse boundary changes, which took Fakenham out of the seat, Lamb’s majority increased in 2010 to more than 11,000.. It will probably be cut this time, although UKIP is making a lot of inroads into the Tory vote. Labour has a very active candidate in Denise Burke and it is expected that she will start to build up the almost extinct Labour vote here, almost entirely at the expense of the LibDems.
Norwich North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17280 (40.6%)
Labour: 13379 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 7783 (18.3%)
BNP: 747 (1.8%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.4%)
Christian: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3901 (9.2%)
Sitting MP: Chloe Smith
Prediction: Labour gain
This is the seat where I cut my political teeth back in the mid 1980s. It hasn’t changed a lot since then, although there are quite a few new build housing estates. This is another seat which goes with the prevailing political wind. If Cameron wins a majority Chloe Smith will hold her seat. If he doesn’t she will face a very tough fight against the impressive Labour candidate Jessica Asato.
Norwich South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10902 (22.9%)
Labour: 13650 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 13960 (29.4%)
BNP: 697 (1.5%)
Green: 7095 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.4%)
Others: 102 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 310 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Simon Wright
Prediction: Labour gain
If there was one definite Labour gain at the election, this would be it. Much to his own surprise Wright won this from Charles Clarke 2010 and since then seems to have remained in a total state of bemusement. Having been Norman Lamb’s campaign manager, Wright knows all there is to know about the LibDem campaign manual for holding a seat once you’ve won it, but he seemed to give up on this seat almost from day 1. The Greens have pretensions here, but usually flatter to deceive in general elections. It’s conceivable that they could gain five percent from both the LibDems and Labour, but in reality it’s difficult to see anything other than a Labour gain.
North West Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25916 (54.2%)
Labour: 6353 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 11106 (23.2%)
BNP: 1839 (3.8%)
Green: 745 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1841 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 14810 (31%)
Sitting MP: Henry Bellingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This seat went Labour for a time under Tony Blair, but it returned to the Conservative fold in 2001 and Henry Bellingham has built a solid majority. This might well increase in May as UKIP slices into the Labour vote, although they might do the same to Bellingham.
South Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27133 (49.3%)
Labour: 7252 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16193 (29.4%)
BNP: 1086 (2%)
Green: 1000 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2329 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10940 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Richard Bacon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold*
The LibDems have done their best here in the past and have controlled one or two local councils, but they have never seriously threatened the Conservative majority, and certainly won’t do this time.
South West Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23753 (48.3%)
Labour: 9119 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 10613 (21.6%)
BNP: 1774 (3.6%)
Green: 830 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3061 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 13140 (26.7%)
Sitting MP: Liz Truss (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Of all the so-called safe Conservative seats in Norfolk, this one that is most volatile. It has seen a huge demographic change in the last 20 years. It almost went Labour in 1997 but Gillian Shephard just held on. UKIP have got a foothold here, but no one quite knows where their vote might come from.
Coming Next: Suffolk