The votes and seats totals shown elsewhere on this site are forecasts. They are predictions about what will happen on 7 May 2015. These forecasts are based on where we think the polls are today, combined with historical evidence about how support for parties evolves as elections approach. As such, they will have significant uncertainty until just before the election, and they are also difficult to evaluate.
This tab provides information on where we think the polls are today. We think this is useful for understanding what the current polls imply about the breakdown of seats, as well as for seeing what the current situation is likely to be in constituencies that have not been individually polled. As further constituency polls are released, we can then compare those polls to these seat "nowcasts" in order to assess whether our model is doing a good job of interpolating support for the parties in unpolled constituencies.
Here are the seats and votes that each party would receive, if the election were today, given what current and past polling tells us:
|Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat.|
|Sortable table of current probability of victory for every party in every seat.|
|East of England||37||21||10||0||0||7||24||1|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||22||41||7||0||0||6||21||2|
PREDICTIVE FORECAST FOR MAY 2015