Election Forecasts Prediction (12th DEC)

most recently on 12 December 2014 at 20:00. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

The votes and seats totals shown elsewhere on this site are forecasts. They are predictions about what will happen on 7 May 2015. These forecasts are based on where we think the polls are today, combined with historical evidence about how support for parties evolves as elections approach. As such, they will have significant uncertainty until just before the election, and they are also difficult to evaluate.
This tab provides information on where we think the polls are today. We think this is useful for understanding what the current polls imply about the breakdown of seats, as well as for seeing what the current situation is likely to be in constituencies that have not been individually polled. As further constituency polls are released, we can then compare those polls to these seat "nowcasts" in order to assess whether our model is doing a good job of interpolating support for the parties in unpolled constituencies.
Here are the seats and votes that each party would receive, if the election were today, given what current and past polling tells us:

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing	Lo	Votes	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	243	252	260	-54	28.8%	29.2%	29.7%	-6.8%
Labour	287	295	304	37	31.0%	31.4%	31.9%	2.5%
Liberal Democrats	17	21	24	-36	9.1%	9.5%	9.9%	-13.5%
SNP	40	45	50	39	3.6%	3.8%	4.0%	2.2%
Plaid Cymru	1	3	5	0	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
Greens	1	1	2	0	5.3%	5.6%	5.9%	4.7%
UKIP	9	14	19	14	17.6%	18.0%	18.4%	14.9%
Other	1	1	1	0	1.6%	1.7%	1.9%	-4.0%

To see our estimate of what the national and constituency polls imply about each seat currently:

Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat.

Sortable table of current probability of victory for every party in every seat.

At the level of regions, we estimate the following current levels of support for each party:

	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
East Midlands	32	34	7	0	0	5	21	2
East of England	37	21	10	0	0	7	24	1
London	28	42	10	0	0	6	12	2
North East	20	48	7	0	0	5	19	1
North West	24	43	8	0	0	4	19	2
Scotland	11	30	6	46	0	4	2	1
South East	40	18	12	0	0	7	20	3
South West	35	19	17	0	0	8	20	1
Wales	18	38	7	0	13	3	20	2
West Midlands	30	35	7	0	0	5	21	2
Yorkshire and The Humber	22	41	7	0	0	6	21	2

PREDICTIVE FORECAST FOR MAY 2015 

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Labour	243	283	329	25
Conservatives	234	280	320	-26
SNP	24	34	45	28
Liberal Democrats	18	27	39	-30
DUP	6	8	10	0
UKIP	1	3	7	3
Plaid Cymru	1	3	5	0
SDLP	1	3	3	0
Greens	0	1	2	0
Other	7	8	10	0