Monday 1 December 2014

#GE2015 Forecast (DEC 1st)

most recently on 01 December 2014 at 16:43. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
 
 he following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains Losses
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
England 277 227 25 0 0 1 2 1
Scotland 1 22 1 35 0 0 0 0
Wales 7 29 2 0 2 0 0 0
The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
2010 Con 275 29 0 0 0 0 2 0
2010 Lab 0 239 0 19 0 0 0 0
2010 LD 10 9 28 10 0 0 0 0
2010 SNP 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
2010 PC 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0
2010 GRN 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2010 UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 Oth 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
 
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 240 280 318 -26
Labour 242 282 325 24
Liberal Democrats 19 28 39 -29
SNP 23 34 45 28
Plaid Cymru 1 3 5 0
Greens 0 1 2 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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