Monday 29 December 2014

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Hampshire

Originally posted here http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats:19
Current Political Makeup: Con 15, Lab 2, LibDem 2

Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 17 LAB 2
1. Aldershot
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21203 (46.7%)
Labour: 5489 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 15617 (34.4%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.5%)
Others: 803 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 5586 (12.3%)
Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Howarth
Prediction: Conservative hold
Had the LibDems not been in coalition they might have made some headway here. Expect Sir Gerald’s majority to double.
2. Basingstoke
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25590 (50.5%)
Labour: 10327 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 12414 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13176 (26%)
Sitting MP: Maria Miller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Labour came within a whisker of winning Basingstoke in 2001, and Maria Miller’s expenses experience won’t have hurt her. But boundary changes have helped make this a safe Tory seat now, even though Miller’s expenses scandal may mean a reduced majority.
3. East Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29137 (56.8%)
Labour: 4043 (7.9%)
Lib Dem: 15640 (30.5%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.9%)
English Dem: 710 (1.4%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13497 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Damian Hinds (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
4. Eastleigh
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)
2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Mike Thornton (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
The Conservatives thought they would win this seat back at each of the last two general elections, but each time Chris Huhne pulled through. At the by-election they came third, with UKIP almost pipping the rather monochrome Mike Thornton. It’s highly unlikely UKIP’s vote will hold up so the outcome of this seat may depend on where UKIP’s voters put their cross. If enough of them return to the Conservative fold, it could be enough to see the Conservative home. Having said that, the LibDems remain strong in local government and have a good infrastructure there. This could prove to be the difference, but on balance I think their national woes may count against Thornton holding the seat. I realise I may be in the minority in making this particular prediction.
5. Fareham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30037 (55.3%)
Labour: 7719 (14.2%)
Lib Dem: 12945 (23.8%)
Green: 791 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2235 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 17092 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Mark Hoban (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Gosport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24300 (51.8%)
Labour: 7944 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 9887 (21.1%)
BNP: 1004 (2.1%)
Green: 573 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1496 (3.2%)
English Dem: 622 (1.3%)
Independent: 493 (1.1%)
Others: 620 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 14413 (30.7%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Dinenage (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Havant
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22433 (51.1%)
Labour: 7777 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 10273 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2611 (5.9%)
English Dem: 809 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 12160 (27.7%)
Sitting MP: David Willetts (Con)
Prediction: Con hold
David Willetts is standing down, but his successor, Alan Mak, will have little trouble in holding this seat.
8. Meon Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28818 (56.2%)
Labour: 3266 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 16693 (32.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.9%)
English Dem: 582 (1.1%)
Independent: 134 (0.3%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12125 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: George Hollingbery (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
9. New Forest East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26443 (52.8%)
Labour: 4915 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 15136 (30.3%)
Green: 1024 (2%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
MAJORITY: 11307 (22.6%)
Sitting MP: Julian Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat.
10. New Forest West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27980 (58.8%)
Labour: 4666 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11084 (23.3%)
Green: 1059 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2783 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 16896 (35.5%)
Sitting MP: Desmond Swayne (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat.
11. North East Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32075 (60.6%)
Labour: 5173 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13478 (25.5%)
UKIP: 2213 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 18597 (35.1%)
Sitting MP: Sir James Arbuthnot (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Sir James Arbuthnot is standing down and his successor Ranil Jaywardena should maintain if not increase the Tory majority here.
12. North West Hampshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31072 (58.3%)
Labour: 6980 (13.1%)
Lib Dem: 12489 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2751 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 18583 (34.9%)
Sitting MP: Sir George Young (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat. Sir George Young is standing down and replaced by Kit Malthouse.
13. Portsmouth North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19533 (44.3%)
Labour: 12244 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 8874 (20.1%)
Green: 461 (1%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.1%)
English Dem: 1040 (2.4%)
TUSC: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7289 (16.5%)
Sitting MP: Penny Mordaunt (Con)
Prediction: Probably Conservative hold
A Labour seat during the Blair/Brown years, Labour has high hopes of retaking this, but overturning this size of majority will take some doing. Even if the LibDems lost half the vote they have built up since 1997 it would still leave Mordaunt with a majority, assuming she can hold on to her vote. She will be hoping the LibDem vote goes at least in part to the Greens. I expect a Tory majority of 1-3,000 here.
14. Portsmouth South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13721 (33.3%)
Labour: 5640 (13.7%)
Lib Dem: 18921 (45.9%)
BNP: 873 (2.1%)
Green: 716 (1.7%)
UKIP: 876 (2.1%)
English Dem: 400 (1%)
Others: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5200 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Mike Hancock (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This seat is now a genuine three way marginal. The LibDems are confident of retaining it despite the Hancock scandal. His successor is the former LibDem leader of the local council. That is a double edged sword as council leaders generally have a lot of enemies.This seat has never had a huge LibDem majority since it was won by Mike Hancock in 1997. It’s always ranged between three and six thousand. It’s difficult to assess the impact of the groping scandal, but on top of their national woes, it could be that the Tories win back what was once for them a safe seat. Hancock has failed to squeeze the Labour vote as much as some of his colleagues, and not so long ago they managed a healthy 25%. If they return to those levels the Tories will win, unless Labour do incredibly well nationally. In that case a Labour gain isn’t out of the question.
15. Romsey & Southampton North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24345 (49.7%)
Labour: 3116 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (41.3%)
UKIP: 1289 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4156 (8.5%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Nokes (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
This was a LibDem seat from 2001 to 2010 but it’s unlikely to revert to the LibDems in May. Expect Caroline Nokes to increase her majority.
16. Southampton Itchen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16134 (36.3%)
Labour: 16326 (36.8%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.8%)
Green: 600 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.3%)
TUSC: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: John Denham (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
John Denham held onto this seat by his fingertips. The Labour vote has been on the decline here since 1997 and it may be that there is some kind of demographic change going on. If the Tories are to win a majority they need to win seats like this. Labour have en enthusiastic candidate in Rowenna Davis, but she has no connections to the area and the Tory candidate Royston Smith, a former leader of Southampton Council will no doubt be forever pointing this out.
17. Southampton Test
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14588 (33%)
Labour: 17001 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 9865 (22.3%)
Green: 881 (2%)
UKIP: 1726 (3.9%)
Independent: 126 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2413 (5.5%)
Sitting MP: Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat was held by the Tories up until 1997, but has been relatively solidly Labour ever since. However, as in Itchen, its vote has been on the decline and Labour will be a little worried about losing it if the Tories do better than expected in May. The Tory candidate is a local councillor and a good campaigner. One to watch on election night.
18. Winchester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27155 (48.5%)
Labour: 3051 (5.5%)
Lib Dem: 24107 (43.1%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
English Dem: 503 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3048 (5.4%)
Sitting MP: Steve Brine (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
This was partly Mark Oaten’s seat. The LibDems were disappointed not to hold onto this seat in 2010 but it would be no surprise to anyone if Steve Brine’s majority doubled or trebled in May, assuming a large part of the LibDem vote shifts to Labour.
19. Isle of Wight
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32810 (46.7%)
Labour: 8169 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 22283 (31.7%)
BNP: 1457 (2.1%)
Green: 931 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2435 (3.5%)
English Dem: 1233 (1.8%)
Independent: 175 (0.2%)
Others: 771 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10527 (15%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Turner (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Has been a LibDem seat in the past, but they have little chance or no chance of winning it back in 2015.

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