Friday 30 January 2015

JANUARYS COUNCIL BY ELECTION PERFORMANCES

MddleEnglander continues to do a great job of collating the information

There were  5 by-elections for 6 seats during January 2015 with none changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party  Candidates      Defended       Retained          Gained            Lost              Won        retention rate
Conservative           6           4           4

           4        100%
Labour           5           1           1

           1        100%
Liberal Democrat              4





SNP           1           1           1

           1        100%
UKIP           6





Green           3





Indpendent *           2





Total         27           6           6

           6        100%

* 2 Independents contesting 1 seat

Conservatives retained:
- St Albans, Marshalswick South - 2 seats in 3 member ward - with an average majority of 8.5% over Liberal Democrat compared to 15.9% over Labour in 2014
   Liberal Democrats won this ward each year from 2003 to 2010 apart from 2006 with Conservatives winning 2006, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 by-elections
   Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 5½% since 2014, 1¾% since 2012, 6½% since 2011 but 4½% Liberal Democrat to Conservative since 2010
- Wealden, Crowborough West - a 2 member ward - with a 17.4% majority in a straight fight with UKIP
   2011 (average) majority was ~43% in straight fight with Labour and ~42% over Liberal Democrat in 3-way 2007 contest
- West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames - 2 member ward - with 55.6% majority over Labour and swing from Labour ~2% (average) since 2011 and 3½% since 2007
   2011 (average) majority was 51.7% over Labour and ~49% in 2007 over Greens, Labour and Liberal Democrats who all polled similar shares

Labour retained Bolsover, Bolsover North West - a 2 member ward - with a 5½% majority over UKIP
- compared to a 33% majority over sole Conservative in 2011, 19% over sole Liberal Democrat in 2007 and unopposed in 2003

SNP retained Fife, Kirkaldy East with a 12% first preference majority over Labour and a swing Labour to SNP of 12.8% since 2012 and 9.3% since 2007
- SNP first preference share was 47.3%, a 10.9% increase since 2012 and 11.9% since 2007

Conservatives polled:
- 15.5% in Bolsover, Bolsover North West, a fall of 18.2% (average) since 2011 when fielded a single candidate but did not contest 2007 and 2003
- 7.2% in Fife, Kirkaldy East, a first preference increase of 1.2% since 2012 but a fall of 0.4% since 2007
- in St Albans, Marshalswick South
- 58.7% in Wealden, Crowborough West, a fall of 12.9% (average) since 2011 and 6.1% since 2007
- 68.1% in West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames, a fall of 2.2% (average) since 2011 but 6.3% increase since 2007

Labour polled:
- 45.0% in Bolsover, Bolsover North West, a fall of 21.3% (average) since 2011 and 14.3% since 2007 having been returned unopposed in 2003
- 35.3% in Fife, Kirkaldy East. a first preference fall of 14.6% since 2012 and 6.7% since 2007
- in St Albans, Marshalswick South
- 12.5% in West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames, a fall of 6.0% (average) since 2011 and 0.2% since 2007
- did not contest Wealden, Crowborough West having polled ~28% in 2011 and 13% in 2007

Liberal Democrats polled:
- 1.3% in Fife, Kirkaldy East, a fall of 1.5% since 2012 and 10.8% since 2007
- in St Albans, Marshalswick South
- 7.6% in West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames, a fall of 3.7% since 2011 (average) and 5% since 2007
- did not contest Bolsover, Bolsover North West having polled ~40% in 2007 nor Wealden, Crowhurst West having polled ~22% also in 2007

UKIP polled:
- 39.5% in Bolsover, Bolsover North West from nowhere
- 3.8% in Fife, Kirkaldy East from nowhere
- in St Albans
- 41.3% in Wealden, Crowhurst West from nowhere in straight fight with Conservative
- 11.9% in West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames from nowhere

Greens polled:
- 4.1% in Fife, Kirkaldy East from nowhere
- in St Albans, Marsalswick South
- did not contest West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames havong polled ~ 13% in 2007

Independents polled:
- 1% by the 2 candidates in Fife, Kirkaldy East
 

THIS WEEKS COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS RESULTS

 Purley was held on the Wednesday and St, Albans on the Thursday

West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames - Conservative hold

Party  2015 votes     2015 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative           936       68.1%         +1.0%            -2.2%         +6.8%            +6.3%
Labour         172       12.5%         -8.7%            -6.0%         -0.1%            -0.2%
UKIP         163       11.9%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Liberal Democrat         104         7.6%         -4.1%            -3.7%         -5.8%            -5.0%
Green             


       -12.7%          -12.9%
Total votes      1,375
          57%             61%          66%             67%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~5% (top) / ~2% (average) since 2011 and ~3½% since 2007
- similarly Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~2½% since 2011 and ~6% since 2007

St Albans, Marshalswick South - Conservative hold 2 seats

Party    2015 votes
- top candidate
    2015 votes
- 2nd candidate
  2015 votes  
   - average
  2015 share
   - average
  since 2014     since 2012     since 2011     since 2010   
Conservative          667          647         657      33.5%       -5.1%       -6.4%     -13.2%       -6.2%
Liberal Democrats            495          488         492      25.0%       +5.8%       -2.9%       -0.2%     -15.3%
Labour          406          312         359      18.3%       -4.4%       -0.6%       +0.1%       +4.2%
Green          450          166         308      15.7%       +5.5%       +7.6%       +5.8%       +9.8%
UKIP          148          147         147        7.5%       -1.7%       +2.2%from nowherefrom nowhere
Total votes       2,166       1,760      1,963
        78%         84%         64%         46%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 5½% since 2014, 1¾% since 2012, 6½% since 2011 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 4½% since 2010

Monday 26 January 2015

UK ELECTION TREND #GE2015 FORECAST

Slight increase to the Conservative chances, but still less chance of the Conservatives getting any kind of return to No.10 than of an outright Labour majority. The SNP have re-stabalised after a slight cooling off, and the "most likely" government to form is still a Lab-LibDem coalition. Labour's combined chance to by in government after the next election sits at over one in four simulations.

There was some talk about the "Conservative tactical masterstroke" of getting the Greens into the debates, and the headlines, as a way to undermine Labour's vote share. However, this hasn't quite manifested as expected, with only moderate gains being made by the Greens, and some polls not showing any gains. Further those gains seem to come from UKIP and 'others', not Labour.

This suggests that UKIP have been absorbing the "anti-establishment protest vote", which has already been quite high. So increased publicity and salience for the Greens simply provides them a greater share of this already priced in protest vote.
 
Originally posted here http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.co.uk/

Friday 23 January 2015

COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS (22nd JAN)

Fife, Kirkaldy East - SNP hold
- first preference votes

Party  2015 votes     2015 share     since 2012     since 2007   
SNP      1,460       47.3%     +10.9%     +11.9%
Labour      1,088       35.3%      -14.7%       -6.8%
Conservative         223         7.2%       +1.2%       -0.4%
Green         126         4.1%from nowherefrom nowhere
UKIP         117         3.8%from nowherefrom nowhere
Liberal Democrat             40         1.3%       -1.5%     -10.8%
Independent H           19         0.6%from nowherefrom nowhere
Independent M           12         0.4%from nowherefrom nowhere
Pensioner  

       -4.8%
Socialist   


       -2.9%
Total votes         3,085
        83%        65%

Swing Labour to SNP 12.8% since 2012 and 9.3% since 2007

Wealden, Crowhurst West - Conservative hold

Party  2015 votes     2015 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative         465       58.7%         -14.1%            -12.9%          -6.6%            -6.1%
UKIP         327       41.3%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Labour

         -27.2%            -28.4%        -12.6%          -12.8%
Liberal Democrat  



        -22.1%          -22.4%
Total votes         792
            42%               43%           52%             53%

Swing not meaningful

Friday 16 January 2015

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Merseyside

Merseyside (Part 2)
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5
9. Sefton Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)
Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Probably an increased majority.
10. Southport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here.
11. St Helens North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)
Sitting MP: Dave Watts (Lab)
Preediction: Labour hold
12. St Helens South & Whiston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)
Sitting MP: Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
13. Wallasey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)
Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
14. Wirral South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)
Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Labour just held on to this seat last time. If the LibDem vote goes their way they will do so again.
15. Wirral West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)
Sitting MP: Esther McVey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Liverpool Labour are determined to win this seat back, but the Ashcroft poll has Esther McVey only one point behind, which surely has to be encouraging for her. I reckon she’ll pull it off, but there may be only a few hundred votes in it.

Merseyside (Part 1)
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8
1. Birkenhead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)
Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Bootle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)
Sitting MP: Joe Benton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Garston & Halewood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)
Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
4. Knowsley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)
Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Liverpool Riverside
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)
Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Liverpool Walton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)
Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
7. Liverpool Wavertree
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)
Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
8. Liverpool West Derby
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland (Part 1)
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2, Alliance 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2, Alliance 1
1. Belfast East
Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Majority: 1,533
Sitting MP: Naomi Long (Alliance)
Prediction: Alliance hold
2. Belfast North
Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Majority 2,224
Sitting MP: Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
3. Belfast South
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Majority: 5,926
Sitting MP: Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold
4. Belfast West
Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Majority: 17,579
BY ELECTION
Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)
Majority: 13,123
Sitting MP: Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold
5. East Antrim
Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Majority 6,770
Sitting MP: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
6. East Londonderry
Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6%, -6.4%)
Cathal Ó hOisín (Sinn Féin) 6,742 (19.3%, +1.9%)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8%, -1.9%)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5% -3.8%)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4%)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5%, +3.1%)
Majority 5355
Sitting MP: Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
7. Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Majority: 4
Sitting MP: Michelle Gildernow (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold
8. Foyle
Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7%, -1.7%)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) 12,098 (31.9% -1.4%)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9%, -2.2%)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8%)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2%, +0.9%)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 4,824
Sitting MP: Mark Durkan (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold
9. Lagan Valley
Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Majority: 10,486
Sitting MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!
Northern Ireland (Part 2)
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1
10. Mid Ulster
Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363
BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681
Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold
11. Newry & Armagh
Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331
Sitting MP: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold
12. North Antrim
Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558
Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
13. North Down
*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364
Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold
14. South Antrim
@William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183
Sitting MP: William McCrea (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
15. South Down
Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412
Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold
16. Strangford
Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876
Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
17. Upper Bann
David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361
Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold
18. West Tyrone
@Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685
Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

Thursday 15 January 2015

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Cheshire

 Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/


Cheshire
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 6
1. City of Chester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Mosley (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
This seat swings with the political wind. I think the UKIP intervention will be decisive here and they will take more votes from the Tories than Labour.
2. Congleton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)
Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Crewe & Nantwich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)
Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.
4. Eddisbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)
Sitting MP: Stephen O’Brien (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
5. Ellesmere Port & Neston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Miller (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
6. Halton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)
Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
7. Macclesfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)
Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
8. Tatton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)
Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
9. Warrington North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)
Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe seat.
10. Warrington South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)
Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
David Mowat’s fortunes rest entirely on who attracts the LibDem vote – him or his Labour opponent. You’d have to think the latter was more likely to.
11. Weaver Vale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)
Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour gain
Ditto Warrington South.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Greater Manchester

Greater Manchester A-E
Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 7, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 8
1. Altrincham & Sale West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)
Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
2. Ashton under Lyne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: David Heyes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Blackley & Broughton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)
Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
4. Bolton North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)
Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat this time.
5. Bolton South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)
Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Bolton West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)
Sitting MP: Julie Hilling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Very close last time, and I did wonder if this might be a seat where UKIP might take votes off Labour. However, if the Ashcroft poll for Bolton West is right, UKIP are taking far more votes from the LibDems and Tories.
7. Bury North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)
Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
This one could go either way. David Nuttall’s strong Eurosceptism may mean that the UKIP vote here is depressed, but will that be enough to save him?
8. Bury South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)
Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Ivan Lewis should be safe here.
9. Cheadle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)
Sitting MP: Mark Hunter (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. I had predicted the LibDems to hold this but I now think it is increasingly unlikely. The Tory vote share here in the last four elections has been 44, 42, 40, 41. If you add together the Labour and LibDem vote share in the last four elections you get 54, 56, 58, 56. It seems highly likely that there will be a shift from the LibDems to Labour here, thus letting the Tory candidate through the middle.
10. Denton & Reddish
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.

Greater Manchester F-M
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 5, UKIP 1
11. Hazel Grove
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Stunell (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
The LibDem majority has fallen in every election since 1997 but the Tories haven’t been able to capitalise. It may well be that UKIP stops them from doing so in May. I find this one of the most difficult LibDem seats to call. Andrew Stunell’s incumbency vote will go, and the fact that the LibDems have chosen a successor from London won’t help them, especially as the Tory candidate is from the area. I’m going to go for a narrow Tory win, based on a general collapse in the LibDem vote, but this is one of my least confident calls, I am happy to admit.
12. Heywood & Middleton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)
BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (
36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)
Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: UKIP gain
UKIP came within an inch of winning the by-election last November and have been quietly pouring huge resources into this seat ever since. Their persistence may pay off in May if they can persuade Tory voters to vote tactically. If not, my face will be covered with much egg.
13. Leigh
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
14. Makerfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
15. Manchester Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)
BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (
3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (
33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)
Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
16. Manchester Gorton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
17. Manchester Withington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)
Sitting MP: John Leech (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
The Ashcroft poll was Lab 56%, LD 22%, Green 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%. Surely John Leech can’t overcome those sort of figures?

Greater Manchester N-Z
Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Lab 10
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 10
18. Oldham East & Saddleworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)
BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (
0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (
10%)
Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A genuine three way marginal. This is one of those north west seats where UKIP could take a lot of votes away from Labour to the benefit of the Conservatives. I’m told the LibDems have a very strong party machine here. Is it impossible to imagine a LibDem win? Probably, but if the Tories decide to vote tactically, who knows? The safest prediction, though, is surely a Labour hold.
19. Oldham West & Royton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)
Sitting MP: Michael Meacher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
20. Rochdale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)
Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems have apparently imploded here. The former seat of Liz Lynne & Cyril Smith, it’s unlikely the LibDems will be able to reverse the 2010 result this time.
21. Salford & Eccles
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: Hazel Blears (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
22. Stalybridge & Hyde
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Reynolds is a rising star in the Labour firmament and will hold this semi-marginal seat.
23. Stockport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)
Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This was a Tory seat through much of the 1980s, held by Tony Favell, but Labour has managed to turn this into a relatively safe seat for them courtesy of a split opposition vote.
24. Stretford & Urmston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. Wigan
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)
Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
26. Worsley & Eccles South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)
Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat.
27. Wythenshawe & Sale East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)
BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%
Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: West Midlands

West Midlands A-S
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 4, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 5
1. Aldridge & Brownhills
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
11. Coventry North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Bob Ainsworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
12. Coventry North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)
Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
13. Coventry South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)
Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The most marginal of the Coventry seats but it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a Labour win here.
14. Dudley North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)
Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong Tory challenge in 2010 and should do so again if he can benefit from the decline in LibDem voters. However, polls show UKIP doing well here and they have opened a large campaigns office.
15. Dudley South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)
Sitting MP: Chris Kelly (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Chris Kelly is retiring after only one term and is succeeded by Mike Wood. This has increased the chances of Labour taking the seat. The swing in 2010 was higher than the national average which could mean one of two things – one, that there are demogrphic moves afoot, or that this seat is more volatile than others.
16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Labour need to win this seat to become the largest party in the House of Commons.
17. Meriden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Conservative hold
Safe seat.
18. Solihull
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)
Sitting MP: Lorely Burt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.
19. Stourbridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)
Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A fantastic result for Margot James last time. Surely she will pull through again.
20. Sutton Coldfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.

West Midlands T-Z
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8
21. Walsall North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)
Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
I do wonder if this is one of those seats where UKIP may eat into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. If they do, David Winnick could be in trouble.
22. Walsall South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Difficult to imagine this seat going Tory.
23. Warley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%
Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
24. West Bromwich East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. West Bromwich West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)
Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat.
26. Wolverhampton North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a Tory majority it could be again. But only then.
27. Wolverhampton South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)
Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
28. Wolverhampton South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)
Sitting MP: Paul Uppal (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
The former Labour MP for the area Rob Marris is standing again. He ought to be a dead cert retread.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Birmingham

 Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/


Birmingham
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
1. Birmingham Edgbaston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)
Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This is by no means a certain Labour hold. If UKIP eats into the Labour vote, the Tories may yet take this seat. UPDATE: I’m told UKIP are making headway in the whote working class area of Bartley Green. Could that help the Tory Dr Luke Evans slip through the middle?
2. Birmingham Erdington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)
Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe seat.
3. Birmingham Hall Green
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)
Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
If Respect had played their cards better, they could have been contenders here in 2015. But they haven’t.
4. Birmingham Hodge Hill
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)
Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Birmingham Ladywood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)
Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Birmingham Northfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)
Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s conceivable it could be again. But not in 2015, I suspect, depending on where the LibDem vote goes. UPDATE: I am told CCHQ have been impressed by the Tory candidate here and are thowing more support here than any other Birmingham seat.
7. Birmingham Perry Bar
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)
Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
8. Birmingham Selly Oak
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Once held by the Tory Anthony Beaumont-Darke it doesn’t look as if this will return to the Tory fold any time soon.
9. Birmingham Yardley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)
Sitting MP: John Hemming (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Hemming is a maverick and I wouldn’t bet against him pulling off a surprise, but if Labour is to form a government it’s this kind of seat they need to take back.

IAIN DALE General Election Predictions 63: Scotland - Glasgow

Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)
Sitting MP: Greg McClymont (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. West Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)
Sitting MP: Gemma Doyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
26. Inverclyde
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)
Sitting MP: Iain McKenzie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)
Sitting MP: Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Michael McCann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
32. Lanark & Hamilton East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)
Sitting MP: Jimmy Hood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
33. Airdrie & Shotts
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)
Sitting MP: Pamela Nash (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
58. East Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: Jo Swinson (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems. Her only chink of light is the Labour vote collapsing to the SNP.
59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)
Sitting MP: Jim Sheridan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.

Scotland – Glasgow
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Lab 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 10, SNP 1
47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)
Sitting MP: Tom Clarke (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
48. Motherwell & Wishaw
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)
Sitting MP: Frank Roy
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
49. Glasgow East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)
Sitting MP: Margaret Curren (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
50. Glasgow North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)
Sitting MP: William Bain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
51. Glasgow North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)
Sitting MP: Ann McKechin (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
The result of this seat will depend in large part on what happens to the LibDem vote and whether the Labour vote crumbles to the SNP. I’m assuming it will. Ladbrokes have this as an SNP gain too.
52. Glasgow North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)
Sitting MP: John Robertson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
53. Glasgow Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)
Sitting MP: Anas Sarwar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
54. Glasgow South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)
Sitting MP: Ian Davidson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
55. East Renfrewshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)
Sitting MP: Jim Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Jim Murphy is standing down but that won’t affect this result.
56. Glasgow South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
*57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)
Sitting MP: Tom Greatrex (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Scotland - Borders & Ayrshire

Originally posted here >> http://www.iaindale.com/

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4, SNP 1
28. North Ayshire & Arran
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)
Sitting MP: Katy Clark (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Big majority to overcome, but the polls show that it’s possible in this area.
29. Central Ayrshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)
Sitting MP: Brian Donohoe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This one may be out of the reach of the SNP.
30. Kilmarnock & Loudoun
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)
Sitting MP: Cathy Jamieson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Again, I just can’t see a 12k majority being threatened.
43. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Michael Moore (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Michael Moore succeeded David Steel and it’s almost impossible to think of this seat being anything other than LibDem. However, the Tory candidate, John Lamont is the local MSP and he stood here in 2010. The Tory vote here increased by 3000 in 2010 and but Moore managed to squeeze the Labour vote too. It’s likely that vote will return from whence it came, but will it be enough for the Tories to squeeze home? It just might.
44. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)
Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour gain here is not out of the question if the bulk of the LibDem vote crumbles to them. Is this likely here? The consensus seems to be no.
45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)
Sitting MP: Sandra Osborne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This is an interesting seat in that until 1992 it was a Tory seat held by Phil Gallie. It has a core Tory vote which has been increasing since 1992. The only way the Tories can regain this seat is if the Labour votes crashes to the SNP. If that happened, it’s possible for the SNP to take the seat, but either of these scenarios is pretty fanciful.
46. Dumfries & Galloway
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)
Sitting MP: Russell Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
On the face of it a relatively safe call for Labour. Or is it? This seat has been held by the SNP and the Tories in recent memory. Either could come through the middle here, but I’m sticking with a ‘safe’ prediction here.