Monday 12 January 2015

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Lancashire

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Lancashire
Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 9, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 9
1. Blackburn
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)
Sitting MP: Jack Straw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)
Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Anything could happen here but the Ashcroft poll suggests a Tory win, as do many local pundits, so I will stick with that.
3. Blackpool South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
4. Burnley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Birtwhistle (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat last time, and he has the mother of all struggles to regain it. He’s been very independent minded and that will help him, and he’s a very local man. But you’d have to bet on a Labour win here.
5. Chorley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)
Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history, but it won’t revert to blue in 2010.
6. Fylde
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)
Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Hyndburn
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)
Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. I doubt whether they will be successful in 2010 unless they get a majority in excess of 30.
8. Lancaster & Fleetwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)
Sitting MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour gain
There’s a big LibDem vote here, and I suspect we can all guess which direction some of that will be heading in. You’d have to be brave to bet against Labour here.
9. Morecambe & Lunesdale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)
Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
David Morris won this back from Labour after three terms. UKIP could influence the result here. The Ashcroft poll gives Labour only a 3% lead so not all is lost for the Tories, but a Labour gain is the most likely result.
10. Pendle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A true bellweather seat, I have a feeling Andrew Stephenson will hold on. If he increases his majority we’re looking at a Tory majority. If he loses the seat we’re looking at a Labour majority.
11. Preston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)
Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
12. Ribble Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)
Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat
13. Rossendale & Darwen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)
Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Will Straw is standing here but he faces an uphill struggle against Jake Berry. I don’t see this falling to Labour unless ed Miliband is heading for a majority.
14. South Ribble
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)
Sitting MP: Lorraine Fulbrook (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Similar to the last seat I don’t see this falling to Labour unless they are heading for a majority. The only difference is that Lorraine Fulbrook is standing down. She’s popular and this might slightly depress the Tory vote.
15. West Lancashire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)
Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a safe seat but I can’t see the Tories winning here unless they’re heading for a good majority.
16. Wyre & Preston North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)
Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.

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