Tuesday 9 May 2017

Where will the independent voter cast their vote?

In the local council elections, one of the reasons they say that you can't do good notional forecasting is because of the number of independent candidates.

Below is an example from the 2015 General Election where the same seat (Morley & Outwood) was also having council elections and where as the Labour candidates polled over 3,200 votes more than the Conservative council candidates when it came to the General Election vote, held at exactly the same time, the Conservative candidate came out on top by 400 votes.

Now as many polls suggest that the Conservatives are doing very well in Wales, which had a high proportion of independent wins. Just where will the independent vote fall?

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Morley & Outwood 

Parliamentary result
,
Conservative 18,766
Labour (Ed Balls) 18,354
UKIP 7,951
LibDems 1,426
Greens 1,264
Yorkshire First 479

Result adding the council figures together

Labour 16,294
Conservatives 13,033
UKIP 8,709
Morley Independents 6,794
Lib Dems 1,710
Greens 1,123 (3/5)
TUSC 314 (3/5)

Morley & Outwood is made up of three districts under the Leeds Council and two under Wakefield

Results below

Leeds Council

This electoral area : Ardsley and Robin Hood
Electorate : 17476
SurnameForenameVotesElectedDescription
AtkinTimothy Adam3582The Conservative Party Candidate
Bishop-RoweVictoria373Liberal Democrats
DanielDavid2238UK Independence Party (UKIP)
DunnJack4301ELECTEDLabour Party
OmidiranJude399Green Party


This electoral area : Morley North
Electorate : 17743

SurnameForenameVotesElectedDescription
AndrewsPeter Richard263Liberal Democrats
CussonsKaren78Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
FenneyDeborah354Green Party
GettingsBob4271ELECTEDMorley Borough Independents
SewardsMark James2505Labour Party
SteadSamuel1487UK Independence Party (UKIP)
TempestSophie Ann2496The Conservative Party Candidate

This electoral area : Morley South
Electorate : 16706

SurnameForenameVotesElectedDescription
CussonsNeil107Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
DawsonNeil3071ELECTEDLabour and Co-operative Party
DoveLindon1708UK Independence Party (UKIP)
HawkerClaire370Green Party
KidgerWyn2523Morley Borough Independents
MacArthurJohn Durno203Liberal Democrats
TempestKathleen Ann2096The Conservative Party Candidate

Wakefield Council

Labour hold
Stanley and Outwood East
NamePartyVotes%
BYROM, DaveTrade Unionist and Socialist Coalition1291.6
DODD, MargaretLiberal Democrats4275.4
HUDSON, Clive (Elected)Labour Party335142.3
JOHNSTON, James LeeUK Independence Party (UKIP)165120.9
MALYK, Rachel AnneThe Conservative Party Candidate235829.8
Majority99312.5
Spoiled Votes26
% turnout62.7
Total Votes7,916



Labour gain
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West
NamePartyVotes%
ARTHUR, DavidLiberal Democrats4445.8
KEITH, Charlie (Elected)Labour Party306639.7
MOORHOUSE, BrianUK Independence Party (UKIP)170622.1
RYAN, Dean AntonyThe Conservative Party Candidate250132.4
Majority5657.3
Spoiled Votes30
% turnout64.4
Total Votes7,717

Saturday 6 May 2017

Local council election results (England, Scotland & Wales)

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Thursday 4 May 2017

A list of estimated declaration times for the Mayoral & Council elections

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Declaration times in time order

Estimated declaration times are based mainly on forecasts obtained from councils. In some cases where councils are not prepared to give a forecast, the estimate has been based on actual historic times. These estimates can only be taken as a rough guide and are subject to change in the light of new information.
Timings for the mayoral polls in new, devolved super-regions are particularly hard to forecast as they are new elections without proper precedents. Estimates are simply best guesses.

Mayoral elections – estimated declaration times for Friday 5th May in time order:

8West of England05:00
2Doncaster05:30
4Liverpool City Region15:00
5North Tyneside16:00
6Tees Valley16:00
1Cambridgeshire & Peterborough17:00
3Greater Manchester18:00
7West Midlands18:00

Council elections – estimated declaration times for Friday 5th May in time order:

44Isle of Wight02:00
79Swansea02:00
88Wrexham02:30
10Cardiff03:00
22Dorset03:00
32Essex03:00
35Flintshire03:00
37Gloucestershire03:00
48Lincolnshire03:00
49Merthyr Tydfil03:00
53Neath Port Talbot03:00
72Somerset03:00
82Warwickshire03:00
5Blaenau Gwent04:00
6Bridgend04:00
39Hampshire04:00
54Newport04:00
59Northumberland04:00
12Ceredigion04:30
51Monmouthshire05:00
81Vale of Glamorgan07:00
17Cumbria08:00
80Torfaen08:00
62Orkney Islands11:00
76Stirling12:00
13Clackmannanshire12:30
18Denbighshire12:30
3Angus13:00
20Devon13:00
40Hertfordshire13:00
70Shetland Islands13:00
7Buckinghamshire14:00
8Caerphilly14:00
9Cambridgeshire14:00
14Comhairle nan Eilean Siar14:00
15Conwy14:00
23Dumfries & Galloway14:00
24Dundee14:00
26East Ayrshire14:00
30East Sussex14:00
38Gwynedd14:00
42Inverclyde14:00
50Midlothian14:00
52Moray14:00
64Pembrokeshire14:00
65Perth & Kinross14:00
66Powys14:00
69Scottish Borders14:00
73South Ayrshire14:00
2Aberdeenshire14:30
28East Lothian14:30
67Renfrewshire14:30
1Aberdeen15:00
16Cornwall15:00
27East Dunbartonshire15:00
33Falkirk15:00
57North Ayrshire15:00
63Oxfordshire15:00
77Suffolk15:00
78Surrey15:00
84West Lothian15:00
85West Sussex15:00
4Argyll & Bute16:00
11Carmarthenshire16:00
19Derbyshire16:00
34Fife16:00
36Glasgow16:00
46Lancashire16:00
55Norfolk16:00
58North Lanarkshire16:00
71Shropshire16:00
83West Dunbartonshire16:00
86Wiltshire16:00
31Edinburgh17:00
47Leicestershire17:00
60North Yorkshire17:00
61Nottinghamshire17:00
74South Lanarkshire17:00
75Staffordshire17:00
87Worcestershire17:00
29East Renfrewshire17:30
25Durham18:00
43Isle of Anglesey18:00
45Kent18:00
68Rhondda, Cynon, Taff18:00
41Highland19:00
56Northamptonshire19:00
21Doncaster20:00
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source http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php

Wednesday 3 May 2017

Ukip Prospective Parliamentary Candidates for the UK General Election 2017

Link back to the full list >>> Prospective Parliamentary Candidates list 2017
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Boston & SkegnessPaulNuttall
Bournemouth EastDavidHughes
Carmarthen East & DinefwrNeilHamilton
ClactonJeffBray
Crewe & NantwichMichaelStanley
Dudley NorthBillEtheridge
HartlepoolPhillipBroughton
Kingston upon Hull EastMarkFox
Kingston upon Hull NorthJohnKitchen
Kingston upon Hull West & HessleGaryShores
LeighMarkBradley
Lewisham EastAnne MarieWaters
LincolnNickSmith
MaidenheadGerardBatten
Manchester, GortonPhilEckersley
MansfieldSidPepper
North DevonSteveCrowther
North DorsetSteveUnwin
Orkney & ShetlandRobertSmith
PontypriddRobinHunter-Clarke
WallaseyDebbieCaplin
West Bromwich WestStarAnderton
WiganNathanRyding
Wolverhampton North EastGrahamEardley
Wolverhampton South EastBarryHodgson
Wolverhampton South WestRobJones
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Collated by Sharon Doc